Saturday, October 18, 2008

Dan Friedman Analyzes Polls

I just received the following message from Dan Friedman, based on an e-mail from the McCain campaign:

Sat Oct 18, 1:03 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama holds a 4-point lead over Republican John McCain, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Obama leads McCain by 48 to 44 percent among likely voters in the four-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Pollster John Zogby said that while Obama's overall lead had remained relatively stable between 2 and 6 points in the 12 days since the poll started, the latest figures showed a bump for McCain following Wednesday's final presidential debate.

"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up," Zogby said.

He added that McCain's support among Republican voters appeared to be consolidating.

McCain was backed by 91 percent of Republicans in the poll, while Obama drew support from just 88 percent of Democrats. But Obama still enjoyed a 16-point advantage among independent voters, which many analysts expect to be a deciding factor in the November 4 election.

"If (McCain) maintains his edge with Republicans, he stays competitive. But he's going to have to increase his share of independents," Zogby said.

Meanwhile, somewhere in the bowels of the city, very near its rectum:

CBS News/NY Times
10/10 - 10/13
699 LV
Obama +14

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