Thursday, April 19, 2012

Romney Outpolls Obama

The Rasmussen Poll finds that Romney noses out Obama 46%-45%.  I'm trying to figure out whether that's good or bad.  Rasmussen also finds that in a national generic congressional poll the Republicans are leading by 46% to 36%.  The difference is volatile, though; last week it was less than half that.

The numbers may result from Obama's unpopular health care law.  Rasmussen finds that 53% of the public favor its repeal.  If 53% favor repeal and 45% favor Obama, either almost all the 9% undecided presidential voters favor repeal, or some Obama supporters do.  That makes sense because we're talking about American voters. It would be interesting to know whether a few percent both favor Obama and favor repeal of Obamacare.  Also, the public is skeptical of Obama's economic program.  Rasmussen finds that only 49% of Americans say that their home is worth more than when they bought it, and only 27% think that the country is headed in the right direction.

All of this raises the specter of a double-breasted Republican victory: Republican control of congress and the presidency. On the one hand, that may have the effect of repeal of the health care law. Also, it would slow the environmental initiatives of the Obama administration: the attacks on energy development, the local initiatives like Smart Growth and LEED, and the concomitant attacks on home rule and democracy.   Unfortunately, the Republicans have backed erosion of home rule and land rights too, but to a lesser degree.  It is not clear that government will shrink under double-breasted GOP control; rather, the Republicans have previously consolidated Democratic expansions of state power and big government.  If they do, in fact, repeal Obamacare, it will be a first.

At the same time, the Republicans have been good at causing inflation, expanding military spending, and government tyranny.  All of this goes goes back to the Progressive era, with the establishment of the Fed (under Democrat Wilson, who was elected with the aid of Republican Roosevelt), the FBI, and the Palmer Raids.  (Incidentally,  if you haven't seen Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar starring Leonardo DiCaprio, I recommend it.)

The Bush administration accented the problems with Republican government:  crony capitalism, pork barrel waste, and monetary expansion.  In other words, the problems with electing Republicans are about the same as the problems with electing Democrats.  The difference is that the Republicans bloat government to subsidize Republican special interests while the Democrats bloat government to subsidize Democratic special interests.  Both subsidize Wall Street. 

I am in favor of  a third party, either the Libertarian Party or a new party if Ron Paul chooses to establish one.  Governor Gary Johnson would be a first-rate candidate on the Libertarian ticket. He is more moderate and more competent than either Obama or Romney.  Unlike Romney, who is a crony capitalist who has made his living through connections and monetary expansion, Johnson built a real business from scratch.  He did not expand government in New Mexico; he fought a Democratic legislature to restrain government. In America, now, a third party candidate like Johnson is a more moderate choice than either a Democrat or a Republican.