Below
is
a picture of the population trend in Utica, NY from 1850 to the
present. Unlike Buffalo, whose population peaked in 1950, right after
passage of the urban renewal act, the population of Utica peaked in the
1930s, about 15 years before urban renewal and about 20 years after an
expansion of workplace legislation in 1911 to 1913, during New York's
Progressive era.
The 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist
Company fire in New York City had led to the passage of dozens of labor laws
in the mid 1910s. According to
Wikipedia's entry on Al Smith (who was
the speaker of the New York State Assembly and a member of the New York
State Factory Investigating Commission, which proposed the laws):
New laws mandated better building access and egress, fireproofing
requirements, the availability of fire extinguishers, the installation
of alarm systems and automatic sprinklers, better eating and toilet
facilities for workers, and limited the number of hours that women and
children could work. In the years from 1911 to 1913, sixty of the
sixty-four new laws recommended by the Commission were legislated with
the support of Governor William Sulzer.
Other sources say that there were 36 laws, but whatever the precise number, there was a lot of new regulation.
The stagnation in the Utica population began about six or seven years
after Smith's State Assembly (and Robert Wagner's State Senate) passed
the Progressive-era laws, and the decline in the Utica population began about 15 years after.
According to
Wikipedia, "Utica's economy centered around the
manufacture of furniture, heavy machinery, textiles, and lumber." All of
these are subject to factory regulation, which in effect raises wages. Employers contemplate the cost of regulation in their relocation decisions.
As well, the 1913
founding of the Federal Reserve Bank, also in the Progressive period,
led to increased availability of credit. Easy credit meant reduced costs
of relocation. There may have been early relocations of plants away
from the city of Utica into surrounding suburban areas and into the
South.
The combination of easing credit and increasing
workplace and other regulation--the policy mix of both parties, but
especially the Democrats--has been deadly to American manufacturing.
Instead of thinking about underlying causes of Trump's popularity, the
American media has fixated on ad hominem attacks and shrill
rhetoric.
Wikipedia's entry on Utica says that suburbanization
began occurring in earnest in Utica in the 1940s, but there may have
been an earlier trend as credit became available. The suburbanization of
the pre- and post-war eras anticipated the broader globalization that
followed the easing of credit and further expansion of regulation before and after the abolition of the international
gold standard in 1971.
The post-1971 world has been brutal for
those who create value. Those who live off the state as commercial or
investment bankers, government contractors, government employees, and
welfare recipients have fared well.
Unlike Syracuse, Utica does
not have a nationally ranked university. Hence, it has not as easily
participated in the state-subsidized education industry. Unlike Albany,
it isn't a seat of an ever-expanding state bureaucracy. Unlike New York,
the city that has benefited most from expanding credit, it is not a
seat of global finance and bailout funding.
Utica actually
produced goods of value like furniture. It was not a center of financial
or political power, which produce nothing. Such production has been punished in the credit-based economy, which supports a limited
degree of innovation and instead favors low-risk investments such as
plant relocations.
Historical Population of Utica, NY