H/t Patriot246:
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
DBA versus GLD
The top chart shows the historical trend of the agricultural index exchange traded fund (ETF) Deutsche Bank Agricultural Index, DBA and the bottom chart shows GLD since late 2005. The DBA chart had a double top two years ago just prior to the crash of '08. Double tops are a classic technical signal of an impending decline, and it worked in the case of DBA. I googled the DBA and found a few technicians commenting on it to the effect that it has been/is a weak stock because of the double top two years ago. Note the contrast with GLD, which has had a relatively steady upward trend, having taken a small double top and dip during the '08 roller coaster but recovering quickly and profoundly.
I have a problem with that combination of facts, though. If gold is going up it is because of monetary demand, that is, people want to use gold to save instead of dollars, then people anticipate inflation and therefore DBA should go up. If gold demand has a logical foundation, then inflation is impending. If inflation is impending, then agricultural prices should be going up. This is especially true because the inflation has been caused by over-investment in real estate due to Federal Reserve and commercial banking's counterfeiting money and then investing the proceeds in politically favored industries, namely construction and real estate. To expand investment real estate, the supply of agricultural land had to be reduced. Hence, there would seem to be upward pressure on food prices. Last week DBA went up six percent in one day. Since June, when DBA hit its low, it has gone up 28%, from $22.85 to $28.52.
The technicians may underestimate the effect of the underlying process of monetary inflation on long term food prices. I bought DBA about two years ago and I'm up about 12%. The DBA has underperformed both gold and the stock market during that period. It may be subject to further downward fluctuations (the technicians have asserted this until recently) but given the recent trend it may be that the lean years are coming to an end for DBA.
Jay Townsend: Chuck Schumer Sells out New York to Become Majority Leader
GOP senatorial candidate Jay Townsend visited the Kingston/Rhinebeck Tea Party on Monday. Due to heavy teaching responsibilities (I was grading my students' papers) I was unable to attend. But here is an excellent video courtesy of Tom Santopietro.
Maurice Hinchey's Anti-Semitism
Ed Morrissey blogged yesterday about Ed Koch's endorsement of George Phillips in the New York 22nd congressional race. I hope Mr. Morrissey doesn't mind if I quote him at length:
"Why is Koch opposing the Democratic incumbent? Koch is apparently unhappy with Hinchey over the nine-term Congressman’s hostility towards Israel. In his speech, Koch will hit Hinchey over his 2002 meeting with Yasser Arafat at the PLO leader’s headquarters, one of only three members of the House that met with Arafat there. Hinchey also “voted against the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism act, designed to promote the development of democratic institutions in areas under the administrative control of the Palestinian Authority,” and refused to sign either the Poe-Peters or Hoyer-Cantor letters which supported Israel’s right to control access to Gaza to prevent armaments to flow into the Hamas-controlled territory.
"It’s not just Israel, either. Hinchey voted against tougher sanctions on Iran as well, which Koch will mention in his announcement. Koch will also hail Phillips for his work while on the staff of Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) on foreign policy, especially on legislative efforts to force UN reform by purging support for terrorism and antisemitism at Turtle Bay."
My friend, Lincoln Eagle publisher Mike Marnell, was at the Ed Koch announcement. Ron Lauder, head of the American Jewish Congress, also announced that he will support Phillips, according to Marnell. Hinchey's distaste for Israel goes beyond the usual left-wing support for terrorism. I have heard a rumor that there will be a demonstration to protest Hinchey's anti-Semitism in the coming weeks.
"Why is Koch opposing the Democratic incumbent? Koch is apparently unhappy with Hinchey over the nine-term Congressman’s hostility towards Israel. In his speech, Koch will hit Hinchey over his 2002 meeting with Yasser Arafat at the PLO leader’s headquarters, one of only three members of the House that met with Arafat there. Hinchey also “voted against the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism act, designed to promote the development of democratic institutions in areas under the administrative control of the Palestinian Authority,” and refused to sign either the Poe-Peters or Hoyer-Cantor letters which supported Israel’s right to control access to Gaza to prevent armaments to flow into the Hamas-controlled territory.
"It’s not just Israel, either. Hinchey voted against tougher sanctions on Iran as well, which Koch will mention in his announcement. Koch will also hail Phillips for his work while on the staff of Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) on foreign policy, especially on legislative efforts to force UN reform by purging support for terrorism and antisemitism at Turtle Bay."
My friend, Lincoln Eagle publisher Mike Marnell, was at the Ed Koch announcement. Ron Lauder, head of the American Jewish Congress, also announced that he will support Phillips, according to Marnell. Hinchey's distaste for Israel goes beyond the usual left-wing support for terrorism. I have heard a rumor that there will be a demonstration to protest Hinchey's anti-Semitism in the coming weeks.
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