Tuesday, January 20, 2009

75% 2009 Stock Market Rally?

I noticed the following article by Jeff Kearns on Bloomberg. The article suggests that today's 300+ point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a buying opportunity. It is difficult to be optimistic in a stock market that has resisted rebounds. However, it is important to keep in mind that the Fed has created reserves in banks. Real interest rates are below zero. Wall Street pushes for even more stimulus. This could cause duplication of the 1933 experience.

>Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14 percent between Barack Obama’s election and Inauguration Day, the biggest decline ever. The second-biggest drop gave way to a 75 percent rally in 1933.

The CHART OF THE DAY compares the Dow’s retreat since Nov. 4 with the 13 percent slide between Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election and his inauguration on March 4, 1933. The red line goes on to show the Dow’s surge during FDR’s first 100 days. No other new president since the beginning of the last century produced gains or losses of 10 percent or more in the analogous periods.

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