Friday, October 26, 2018

How High Can the VIX Go?

stock chart
VXX over the Past 10 Years. Chart Courtesy of Nasdaq.com



The VIX measures stock market volatility.  Over the past ten years, it has declined from over $14,000 to about $35. That is due to the masseuse skills of the Federal Reserve Bank, which is lightening its deep tissue, shiatsu, and Swedish massage.  The VXX is up 6% today according to Yahoo Finance.  Stock market declines are usually short, absent government intervention as occurred under Franklin D. Roosevelt's administration, but steep. They are, of course, difficult or impossible to time.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The Real Reason They Hate Trump

David Gelerneter, a computer science professor and businessman, has written a brilliant op-ed for the Wall Street Journal Quoting his lyrical piece, which reads like Jack Kerouac:

The difference between citizens who hate Mr. Trump and those who can live with him—whether they love or merely tolerate him—comes down to their views of the typical American: the farmer, factory hand, auto mechanic, machinist, teamster, shop owner, clerk, software engineer, infantryman, truck driver, housewife. The leftist intellectuals I know say they dislike such people insofar as they tend to be conservative Republicans.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama know their real sins. They know how appalling such people are, with their stupid guns and loathsome churches. They have no money or permanent grievances to make them interesting and no Twitter followers to speak of. They skip Davos every year and watch Fox News. Not even the very best has the dazzling brilliance of a Chuck Schumer, not to mention a Michelle Obama. In truth they are dumb as sheep.
Mr. Trump reminds us who the average American really is. Not the average male American, or the average white American. We know for sure that, come 2020, intellectuals will be dumbfounded at the number of women and blacks who will vote for Mr. Trump. He might be realigning the political map: plain average Americans of every type vs. fancy ones.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Why I Support Republicans in 2018 and Trump in 2020, and Why I Oppose Sissified Democrats

Last year Tom Ross wrote a piece in the Examiner in which he quoted William Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts and the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential candidate, as claiming that data showed that 75% of LP voters would have voted for Trump rather than Clinton.  As a result, Trump would have won a net majority in the absence of minor parties.

I am one of the culprits who did not vote for Trump. Until recently, I tended not to vote in presidential elections. When I did, I supported the Libertarian candidate. However, I served on my county Republican committee, worked for the Republican Party locally, and voted during the three nonpresidential years. I have opposed the evident corruption in the GOP both locally and nationally, but I have also contributed to GOP candidates.

As a libertarian, there were three features of Trump's candidacy that turned me off: his proposed wall, his animus toward immigration, and his suspicions about free trade.  These are anti-libertarian positions, and I still oppose them.

However, there are two areas in which Trump has demonstrated valuable instincts:  his attitudes toward political correctness and the media.  Political correctness is a polite name for the totalitarian control and authoritarianism that have always been associated with socialism, communism, and the left in general. One does not advocate a strong government because one is shy of control; one who desires control is as likely to desire it with respect to civil as well as economic matters.

The left's thoroughgoing and consistent authoritarianism is seen in its rationalization architecture. Scholars like Adorno call all who oppose left-wing authoritarianism "authoritarian"; meanwhile, Herbert Marcuse advocates intolerance.  A movement that claims to be intolerant in the name of opposing authoritarianism is a spinning top capable of anything. Indeed, the left, when it gains power, has accomplished every horror imaginable, beginning with mass murder in the nine digits.

Accelerating left-wing totalitarian patterns have been evident to me since I entered higher education in the early 1990s, and they continued to escalate up to the point when the Obama administration began to prosecute professors for expression of views that had no connection to teaching or the campus.  Laura Kipnis was accused of creating a hostile environment at Northwestern University simply because she wrote two articles in the Chronicle of Higher Education.

These rules have now changed. The Trump administration is the first in my lifetime to reverse the march toward totalitarianism in American universities. The exclusion of Republicans from leading universities, which I have studied, is symptomatic of Democratic Party-subsidized groupthink. In turn, the subsidization reflects a historical impetus from corporate-linked foundations, which were eager to homogenize education and eject Christianity from American colleges in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

The media has a similar history.  It was consolidated by investment banking interests, and the centralization and left orientation received subsequent support from the Democratic Party, which censored libertarian positions during the New Deal.  The centralization and homogenization of higher education and journalism converge on the needs of large financial institutions and one of their twin handmaidens, the Democratic Party.

Trump is the first elected official to threaten the status quo. Perhaps this was a ploy to gain votes--but perhaps Trump understands that the media, the universities, the so-called deep state, and especially the Democratic Party have interests that are as really aligned with the interests of ordinary Americans as the interests of Septimius Severus were really aligned with the ordinary Romans who received free bread.

By coincidence I have recently been listening to a lecture series about Roman history, and the thought occurred to me that a parallel might be made between the decline of Rome and the sissification of American culture, especially in the Democratic Party.  I googled a related combination of words and came across a series of news items that tell a story similar to the dumbed-down attacks I have suffered at the hands of the fake-news media.

In 2011 the Italian historian Roberto de Mattei, based on a lifetime of study of Roman history, concluded that the decline of Rome was caused by a parallel process. De Mattei, who was head of the Italian Research Council,  was treated to threats and calls for his sacking by Mussolini's fascio descendants, the Italian left wing.

America's dumbed-down journalists are tools of globalist financiers who delight in American indebtedness, decline, authoritarianism, and socialism.  The delight about the indebtedness part ends when Republicans follow the same destructive policies as the Democrats, but it holds when the Democrats are in office

American journalists worry endlessly about their supposed freedom of the press, which is constrained to the point of zero by centralized credit, centralized financial controls, regulated cable television monopolies, regulated airwaves, and dumbed-down journalists, who are economic and historical illiterates trained by ideological, totalitarian institutions.

The Internet, which was originally thought to be a decentralizing force, is increasingly concentrated on social media that has proven even more authoritarian and subject to centralizing control than television.

Trump's use of Twitter turns this dynamic on its head. Bless him.


Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Extension of the First Amendment to Private Colleges

Concerning the controversy that affected me a few weeks ago, the First Amendment quickly became the chief stumbling block for those eager to fire me or anyone else who may violate their opinions.  The blog I wrote was not hate speech. However, even it it had been hate speech, it would still have had  First Amendment protection.  As Eugene Volokh recently wrote in Reason:

Of course, there is no hate speech exception to the Free Speech Clause, as the Supreme Court unanimously reaffirmed this year in the Slants case. Private universities aren't legally bound by this (except in California, where a state law applies Free Speech Clause rules to them); but public universities, such as Texas A&M and UT, certainly are.

In the 2017 Slants case, Justice Alito wrote (I'm quoting Volokh) :

[The idea that the government may restrict] speech expressing ideas that offend … strikes at the heart of the First Amendment. Speech that demeans on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, disability, or any other similar ground is hateful; but the proudest boast of our free speech jurisprudence is that we protect the freedom to express “the thought that we hate.”

Expressing hate toward the Democratic Party is perhaps the archetypal form of hate speech--at least according to politically correct academics.  However, partisan speech is not hate speech.  The Democrats who sent me threatening emails, necessitating the presence of five campus police officers outside my classroom two weeks ago, certainly see anti-Democratic Party speech as hate speech.  Of course, in their view calling Republicans Nazis is not hate speech while posting a pro-Republican poster is hate speech.

Justice Kennedy drew this conclusion (again quoting Volokh) in Slants:

A law found to discriminate based on viewpoint is an “egregious form of content discrimination,” which is “presumptively unconstitutional.” … A law that can be directed against speech found offensive to some portion of the public can be turned against minority and dissenting views to the detriment of all. The First Amendment does not entrust that power to the government’s benevolence. Instead, our reliance must be on the substantial safeguards of free and open discussion in a democratic society.

Hate-filled left wingers will define hate speech to mean any speech that does not agree with their educationist and socialist views.  Hence, it is important to push the limits of speech restrictions.

Happily, early in the sequence of events, I received a helpful email from the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education.  FIRE made clear not only that the speech in the blog was protected but also that any personnel action whatsoever, even an email, amounted to a violation of my First Amendment Rights.

In a 2016 piece, prior to Slants, Adam Steinbaugh of FIRE wrote about the Obama Justice Department's unconstitutional requirements of investigations of speech violations of Title IX.  For instance, in 1992 the Second Circuit Court of Appeals declared that the City College of New York violated the First Amendment by going beyond vocal condemnation and creating a committee to investigate whether "the professor's views, which have no place at the college, 'affected his teaching ability.'"

An extension of a California law that extends First Amendment protection to professors at private colleges might be a useful step to counteract the left-wing intolerance and prejudice that dominates American colleges.  Any private college that receives federal money should be required to comply with the First Amendment as would any public college.