Emerson Inn and Spa, Mount Pleasant, New York.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Is the Global Warming Theory Falsifiable?
One of the marks of science is falsifiability. If a theory cannot be proven false, it is not scientific. It is incumbent upon the advocates of the theory that the earth is warming to define how their theory can be proven false. If it cannot, it is not a scientific theory. I watched the Al Gore video and do not recall him mentioning how his theory could be proven false.
Bob Robbins just forwarded this from the Astute Blogger. The Astute Blogger quotes a number of articles suggesting that this winter is colder than usual in several places, including Wales, India, Sri Lanka and Alaska.
Global warming theorists might reply that the fact that there are swings in temperature is indeed evidence of global warming. If that is so but the swings in temperature fail to reject the null hypothesis of greater variability (this would involve an F test)then the theory of global warming is rejected. Otherwise, I am having trouble understanding how cooler temperatures in various countries can be consistent with "global" warming.
>FUNERAL directors in Swansea have revealed they are holding more services than usual following a rise in deaths.
They say there has been an increase in the death rate and Assembly-based health experts confirmed the freezing temperatures could be responsible.
... Latest provisional figures for winter 2007/08 reveal there were around 1,500 excess deaths in Wales — a seven per cent rise on the previous winter.
>At least 31 people have died in India's northern state of Uttar Pradesh as severe cold weather continues in the region.
>A severe cold wave is hitting the Nuwara Eliya district, thus affecting tea and other plantations in the low lying areas.
>Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.
Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.
Bob Robbins just forwarded this from the Astute Blogger. The Astute Blogger quotes a number of articles suggesting that this winter is colder than usual in several places, including Wales, India, Sri Lanka and Alaska.
Global warming theorists might reply that the fact that there are swings in temperature is indeed evidence of global warming. If that is so but the swings in temperature fail to reject the null hypothesis of greater variability (this would involve an F test)then the theory of global warming is rejected. Otherwise, I am having trouble understanding how cooler temperatures in various countries can be consistent with "global" warming.
>FUNERAL directors in Swansea have revealed they are holding more services than usual following a rise in deaths.
They say there has been an increase in the death rate and Assembly-based health experts confirmed the freezing temperatures could be responsible.
... Latest provisional figures for winter 2007/08 reveal there were around 1,500 excess deaths in Wales — a seven per cent rise on the previous winter.
>At least 31 people have died in India's northern state of Uttar Pradesh as severe cold weather continues in the region.
>A severe cold wave is hitting the Nuwara Eliya district, thus affecting tea and other plantations in the low lying areas.
>Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.
Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.
David's Proposal Re Obama Certificate
I just received the following e-mail:
Per your efforts to examine Obama's qualifications, may I encourage you to seek "verification" of Obama's "certificates", particularly focusing on what you KNOW is on those certificates. The privacy issue is only over what primary vital information you do NOT know.
[§338-14.3] Verification in lieu of a certified copy. provides for verification of what you think you DO know.
e.g., Based on school records citing "Barry Soetoro", adopted by "Lolo Soetoro Mangunharjo"
Also known as Lolo Sutoro Mangundikardjo
Since they will only verify exact wording, it may take multiple tries, but eventually you can verify multiple items.
David L. H---n
See:
http://hawaii.gov/health/vital-records/vital-records/vital_records.html
"Letters of Verification
Letters of verification may be issued in lieu of certified copies (HRS §338-14.3). This document verifies the existence of a birth/death/marriage/divorce certificate on file with the Department of Health and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event. (For example, that a certain named individual was born on a certain date at a certain place.) The verification process will not, however, disclose information about the vital event contained within the certificate that is unknown to and not provided by the applicant in the request.
Letters of verification are requested in similar fashion and using the same request forms as for certified copies.
The fee for a letter of verification is $5 per letter."
http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/hrscurrent/vol06_ch0321-0344/HRS0338/HRS_0338-0014_0003.htm
" [§338-14.3] Verification in lieu of a certified copy. (a) Subject to the requirements of section 338-18, the department of health, upon request, shall furnish to any applicant, in lieu of the issuance of a certified copy, a verification of the existence of a certificate and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event that pertains to the certificate.
(b) A verification shall be considered for all purposes certification that the vital event did occur and that the facts of the event are as stated by the applicant.
(c) Verification may be made in written, electronic, or other form approved by the director of health.
(d) The fee for a verification in lieu of a certified copy shall be one half of the fee established in section 338-14.5 for the first certified copy of a certificate issued.
(e) Fees received for verifications in lieu of certified copies shall be remitted, and one half of the fee shall be deposited to the credit of the vital statistics improvement special fund in section 338-14.6 and the remainder of the fee shall be deposited to the credit of the state general fund. [L 2001, c 246, §1]"
In HRS 338-0018 see especially:
" (g) The department shall not issue a verification in lieu of a certified copy of any such record, or any part thereof, unless it is satisfied that the applicant requesting a verification is: . . .
(4) A private or government attorney who seeks to confirm information about a vital event relating to any such record which was acquired during the course of or for purposes of legal proceedings; or
(5) An individual employed, endorsed, or sponsored by a governmental, private, social, or educational agency or organization who seeks to confirm information about a vital event relating to any such record in preparation of reports or publications by the agency or organization for research or educational purposes. [L 1949, c 327, §22; RL 1955, §57-21; am L Sp 1959 2d, c 1, §19; am L 1967, c 30, §2; HRS §338-18; am L 1977, c 118, §1; am L 1991, c 190, §1; am L 1997, c 305, §5; am L 2001, c 246, §2]"
--
About Vital Records | Marriage License | Marriage Performers | Reciprocal Beneficiary Relationships
How to Apply for Certified Copies of Vital Records
All applications requesting certified copies of birth, death, marriage, and divorce certificates must generally be made in writing (application forms may be downloaded from this site - see below). Requests may also be placed for birth and marriage certificates on a limited basis through the Internet (www.ehawaiigov.org/ohsm). Telephone, FAX, or e-mail requests are not accepted.
Fees for certified copies of birth, death, marriage, and divorce certificates are identical:
$10.00 for the first copy of each certificate, and
$4.00 for each additional copy of the same certificate ordered at the same time.
There is an additional fee for requests made through the Internet as follows:
$1.50 for a request of one (the first) copy of each certificate, if the requested certificate is found, or for the cost of conducting the search, if the requested certificate is not found, and
$0.25 for each additional copy of the same certificate ordered at the same time.
Fees may be paid by cash (except for applications made by postal mail), money order, certified check, or cashier’s check - make money order and checks payable to the State Department of Health.
PERSONAL CHECKS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED.
Fees must be paid by a charge to a credit card for requests made through the Internet.
All fees for certified copies are payable in advance and nonrefundable. If no record is found after a search is conducted, the fees are retained to cover the cost of the search.
Once an order has been received and processed, a $10.00 fee will be charged for any request to make changes to the order.
Apply In Person
Walk-in service is available:
Days - Monday through Friday (excluding holidays)
Hours - 7:45 a.m. to 2:30 p.m.
Location - Room 103 (1st floor) of the Health Department building, 1250 Punchbowl Street (corner of Beretania and Punchbowl Streets)
When applying in person, the applicant must show a valid government-issued photo ID, such as a State ID, driver's license, etc.
Certified copies are usually not issued on the day the application is made. Same-Day service may be provided upon presentation of written documentation establishing the need for urgency. Certified copies will normally be available for pick-up about 10 working days after the request is approved. The pick-up time may be extended for records that are very old, because the search to locate the record may take longer, or in the process of being filed, because the official record is still being created.
Application forms are available in the building’s lobby area and should be filled in prior to coming to the counter in Room 103.
Apply by Mail
Send mail-in applications to the following address:
State Department of Health
Office of Health Status Monitoring
Issuance/Vital Statistics Section
P.O. Box 3378
Honolulu, HI 96801
When applying by mail, the applicant must include a photocopy of his/her government-issued photo ID, such as a State ID, driver's license, etc.
PERSONAL CHECKS WILL BE REJECTED AND RETURNED WITH THE APPLICATION TO THE APPLICANT.
Certified copies will normally be sent out within 5-8 weeks after receipt and approval of the application. The return time may be extended for records that are very old, because the search to locate the record may take longer, or in the process of being filed, because the official record is still being created.
What Information You Should Be Prepared to Provide
An applicant/requestor must provide the information needed to 1) establish his/her direct and tangible interest in the record and 2) locate the desired record. This will normally include:
Applicant's name, address, and telephone number(s);
Applicant's relationship to the person named on the certificate;
Reason why you are requesting the certificate;
Full name(s) as listed on the certificate;
The certificate’s file number (if known);
Month, day, and year of the event; and
City or town and the island where the event occurred.
For birth certificates, also provide the full name of the father and the full maiden name of the mother.
If you are applying for a certificate on behalf of someone else, you must provide an original letter signed by that person authorizing the release of their certificate to you.
Letters of Verification
Letters of verification may be issued in lieu of certified copies (HRS §338-14.3). This document verifies the existence of a birth/death/marriage/divorce certificate on file with the Department of Health and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event. (For example, that a certain named individual was born on a certain date at a certain place.) The verification process will not, however, disclose information about the vital event contained within the certificate that is unknown to and not provided by the applicant in the request.
Letters of verification are requested in similar fashion and using the same request forms as for certified copies.
The fee for a letter of verification is $5 per letter.
Application Forms
Application forms are available in a “fillable” Adobe Acrobat portable document format (PDF). The Adobe Acrobat Reader 7 (or later) is required for using the fillable forms feature.
The Adobe Acrobat Reader 7 is free to download and install on your computer by clicking on the button:
Download Request For Certified Copy of Birth Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Death Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Marriage Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Divorce Record
Further Information and Assistance
If you require further information about applying for certified copies of vital records or want to check on the status of an accepted request for certified copies of vital records, call (808) 586-4539 or (808) 586-4542 during regular business hours.
Per your efforts to examine Obama's qualifications, may I encourage you to seek "verification" of Obama's "certificates", particularly focusing on what you KNOW is on those certificates. The privacy issue is only over what primary vital information you do NOT know.
[§338-14.3] Verification in lieu of a certified copy. provides for verification of what you think you DO know.
e.g., Based on school records citing "Barry Soetoro", adopted by "Lolo Soetoro Mangunharjo"
Also known as Lolo Sutoro Mangundikardjo
Since they will only verify exact wording, it may take multiple tries, but eventually you can verify multiple items.
David L. H---n
See:
http://hawaii.gov/health/vital-records/vital-records/vital_records.html
"Letters of Verification
Letters of verification may be issued in lieu of certified copies (HRS §338-14.3). This document verifies the existence of a birth/death/marriage/divorce certificate on file with the Department of Health and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event. (For example, that a certain named individual was born on a certain date at a certain place.) The verification process will not, however, disclose information about the vital event contained within the certificate that is unknown to and not provided by the applicant in the request.
Letters of verification are requested in similar fashion and using the same request forms as for certified copies.
The fee for a letter of verification is $5 per letter."
http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/hrscurrent/vol06_ch0321-0344/HRS0338/HRS_0338-0014_0003.htm
" [§338-14.3] Verification in lieu of a certified copy. (a) Subject to the requirements of section 338-18, the department of health, upon request, shall furnish to any applicant, in lieu of the issuance of a certified copy, a verification of the existence of a certificate and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event that pertains to the certificate.
(b) A verification shall be considered for all purposes certification that the vital event did occur and that the facts of the event are as stated by the applicant.
(c) Verification may be made in written, electronic, or other form approved by the director of health.
(d) The fee for a verification in lieu of a certified copy shall be one half of the fee established in section 338-14.5 for the first certified copy of a certificate issued.
(e) Fees received for verifications in lieu of certified copies shall be remitted, and one half of the fee shall be deposited to the credit of the vital statistics improvement special fund in section 338-14.6 and the remainder of the fee shall be deposited to the credit of the state general fund. [L 2001, c 246, §1]"
In HRS 338-0018 see especially:
" (g) The department shall not issue a verification in lieu of a certified copy of any such record, or any part thereof, unless it is satisfied that the applicant requesting a verification is: . . .
(4) A private or government attorney who seeks to confirm information about a vital event relating to any such record which was acquired during the course of or for purposes of legal proceedings; or
(5) An individual employed, endorsed, or sponsored by a governmental, private, social, or educational agency or organization who seeks to confirm information about a vital event relating to any such record in preparation of reports or publications by the agency or organization for research or educational purposes. [L 1949, c 327, §22; RL 1955, §57-21; am L Sp 1959 2d, c 1, §19; am L 1967, c 30, §2; HRS §338-18; am L 1977, c 118, §1; am L 1991, c 190, §1; am L 1997, c 305, §5; am L 2001, c 246, §2]"
--
About Vital Records | Marriage License | Marriage Performers | Reciprocal Beneficiary Relationships
How to Apply for Certified Copies of Vital Records
All applications requesting certified copies of birth, death, marriage, and divorce certificates must generally be made in writing (application forms may be downloaded from this site - see below). Requests may also be placed for birth and marriage certificates on a limited basis through the Internet (www.ehawaiigov.org/ohsm). Telephone, FAX, or e-mail requests are not accepted.
Fees for certified copies of birth, death, marriage, and divorce certificates are identical:
$10.00 for the first copy of each certificate, and
$4.00 for each additional copy of the same certificate ordered at the same time.
There is an additional fee for requests made through the Internet as follows:
$1.50 for a request of one (the first) copy of each certificate, if the requested certificate is found, or for the cost of conducting the search, if the requested certificate is not found, and
$0.25 for each additional copy of the same certificate ordered at the same time.
Fees may be paid by cash (except for applications made by postal mail), money order, certified check, or cashier’s check - make money order and checks payable to the State Department of Health.
PERSONAL CHECKS WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED.
Fees must be paid by a charge to a credit card for requests made through the Internet.
All fees for certified copies are payable in advance and nonrefundable. If no record is found after a search is conducted, the fees are retained to cover the cost of the search.
Once an order has been received and processed, a $10.00 fee will be charged for any request to make changes to the order.
Apply In Person
Walk-in service is available:
Days - Monday through Friday (excluding holidays)
Hours - 7:45 a.m. to 2:30 p.m.
Location - Room 103 (1st floor) of the Health Department building, 1250 Punchbowl Street (corner of Beretania and Punchbowl Streets)
When applying in person, the applicant must show a valid government-issued photo ID, such as a State ID, driver's license, etc.
Certified copies are usually not issued on the day the application is made. Same-Day service may be provided upon presentation of written documentation establishing the need for urgency. Certified copies will normally be available for pick-up about 10 working days after the request is approved. The pick-up time may be extended for records that are very old, because the search to locate the record may take longer, or in the process of being filed, because the official record is still being created.
Application forms are available in the building’s lobby area and should be filled in prior to coming to the counter in Room 103.
Apply by Mail
Send mail-in applications to the following address:
State Department of Health
Office of Health Status Monitoring
Issuance/Vital Statistics Section
P.O. Box 3378
Honolulu, HI 96801
When applying by mail, the applicant must include a photocopy of his/her government-issued photo ID, such as a State ID, driver's license, etc.
PERSONAL CHECKS WILL BE REJECTED AND RETURNED WITH THE APPLICATION TO THE APPLICANT.
Certified copies will normally be sent out within 5-8 weeks after receipt and approval of the application. The return time may be extended for records that are very old, because the search to locate the record may take longer, or in the process of being filed, because the official record is still being created.
What Information You Should Be Prepared to Provide
An applicant/requestor must provide the information needed to 1) establish his/her direct and tangible interest in the record and 2) locate the desired record. This will normally include:
Applicant's name, address, and telephone number(s);
Applicant's relationship to the person named on the certificate;
Reason why you are requesting the certificate;
Full name(s) as listed on the certificate;
The certificate’s file number (if known);
Month, day, and year of the event; and
City or town and the island where the event occurred.
For birth certificates, also provide the full name of the father and the full maiden name of the mother.
If you are applying for a certificate on behalf of someone else, you must provide an original letter signed by that person authorizing the release of their certificate to you.
Letters of Verification
Letters of verification may be issued in lieu of certified copies (HRS §338-14.3). This document verifies the existence of a birth/death/marriage/divorce certificate on file with the Department of Health and any other information that the applicant provides to be verified relating to the vital event. (For example, that a certain named individual was born on a certain date at a certain place.) The verification process will not, however, disclose information about the vital event contained within the certificate that is unknown to and not provided by the applicant in the request.
Letters of verification are requested in similar fashion and using the same request forms as for certified copies.
The fee for a letter of verification is $5 per letter.
Application Forms
Application forms are available in a “fillable” Adobe Acrobat portable document format (PDF). The Adobe Acrobat Reader 7 (or later) is required for using the fillable forms feature.
The Adobe Acrobat Reader 7 is free to download and install on your computer by clicking on the button:
Download Request For Certified Copy of Birth Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Death Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Marriage Record
Download Request For Certified Copy of Divorce Record
Further Information and Assistance
If you require further information about applying for certified copies of vital records or want to check on the status of an accepted request for certified copies of vital records, call (808) 586-4539 or (808) 586-4542 during regular business hours.
Democrats versus Republicans on Israel
Dan Friedman just sent me a link to the Rasmussen website. The polling firm finds that of Americans:
>Forty-four percent (44%) say Israel should have taken military action against the Palestinians, but 41% say it should have tried to find a diplomatic solution to the problems there, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.
>Fifty-five percent (55%) of adults, however, believe the Palestinians are to blame for the current situation in Gaza, while 13% point the finger at the Israelis. Nearly one-third (32%) aren't sure.
>Men are far more sympathetic to the Israelis than women. Fifty-six percent (56%) of men support Israel's military action, compared to 34% of women. Whites narrowly give the edge to military action, but African-Americans by three-to-one say diplomacy was the better way to go.
>Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those who say they are following news out of Gaza Very Closely support Israel's military action, while 30% favor diplomacy.
>Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans back Israel's decision to take military action against the Palestinians, but only half as many Democrats (31%) agree. A majority of Democrats (55%) say Israel should have tried to find a diplomatic solution first, a view shared by just 27% of Republicans.
>While 75% of Republicans say Israel is an ally of the United States, just 55% of Democrats agree. Seven percent (7%) of Democrats say Israel is an enemy of America, but only one percent (1%) of Republicans say the same. For 21% of Republicans, Israel is somewhere in between, and 28% of Democrats agree.
The Jews are fools to stay within the Democratic Party.
>Forty-four percent (44%) say Israel should have taken military action against the Palestinians, but 41% say it should have tried to find a diplomatic solution to the problems there, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.
>Fifty-five percent (55%) of adults, however, believe the Palestinians are to blame for the current situation in Gaza, while 13% point the finger at the Israelis. Nearly one-third (32%) aren't sure.
>Men are far more sympathetic to the Israelis than women. Fifty-six percent (56%) of men support Israel's military action, compared to 34% of women. Whites narrowly give the edge to military action, but African-Americans by three-to-one say diplomacy was the better way to go.
>Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those who say they are following news out of Gaza Very Closely support Israel's military action, while 30% favor diplomacy.
>Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans back Israel's decision to take military action against the Palestinians, but only half as many Democrats (31%) agree. A majority of Democrats (55%) say Israel should have tried to find a diplomatic solution first, a view shared by just 27% of Republicans.
>While 75% of Republicans say Israel is an ally of the United States, just 55% of Democrats agree. Seven percent (7%) of Democrats say Israel is an enemy of America, but only one percent (1%) of Republicans say the same. For 21% of Republicans, Israel is somewhere in between, and 28% of Democrats agree.
The Jews are fools to stay within the Democratic Party.
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