Thursday, August 14, 2008
Bill and Hillary Clinton at the Emerson Resort and Spa
I exercise at an exclusive hotel in the Catskills, about 15 minutes from my home, called the Emerson Resort and Spa. Dean Gitter, a visionary entrepreneur who aims to turn the central Catskills into a gaming center, developed the hotel. It is truly a pleasure to be able to work out in a world class hotel, which boasts a beautiful spa as well as a first class gym. The pleasure is enhanced by the Emerson's generosity in extending reduced rates to the good people of the Woodstock-Pine Hill region in the east-central Catskill Mountains.
On Tuesday I was working out at about 5:00 pm and was the only one in the gym. This is part of the joy of being a professor in August. The door opened and I spied someone who looked like Hillary Clinton. The door opened further and Bill Clinton stuck his head in the door. I said "hi" and he did not really respond. About 1/2 hour later as I was nearing the end of my nautilus circuit a secret service agent came in and looked over the weights. About a dozen secret service agents were standing in the lobby when I left.
I did not blog about this until Thursday morning as I did not want to disturb the Emerson's confidentiality. The Catskills badly need exposure of this kind.
I did not get a chance to speak to Bill Clinton, and I have thought for two days what I would have said if I did. This is it. America's relationship with China has not been adequately managed. There will be a serious danger of a nuclear war in the 22nd century. I do not know this for certain, nor does anyone else know or not know. But it is more than a slim chance.
In 2007 Business Network (bnet) quoted former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger (Kissinger was Secretary of State under President Richard M. Nixon.):
''The center of gravity of the world is moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The key countries of the world are mostly located in Asia, or will be in the next 50 years,'' he said in a speech about future Sino-U.S. relations.
"When the center of gravity moves from one region to another and another country suddenly becomes very powerful, what history teaches us is that conflict is inevitable," he added.
The country Kissinger is describing is China. Because of today's important concerns about the Middle East and terrorism, the management of the Chinese relationship has been overlooked. The current Olympics highlights Chinese growth.
Kissinger adds concerning Chinese growth:
"There is nothing we can do about it, there is nothing we can do to prevent it, there is nothing we should do to prevent it."
I am fairly good at timing the stock market, and not too many people can say that. Dr. Kissinger has a point. I cannot prove it, but I do believe that there is a risk of nuclear war with China in the 22nd century IF we do not begin to manage the relationship with China more intelligently.
I would have urged President Clinton to make use of contact that he has with Chinese officials to educate them as to the advantage of the path of economic growth, free trade, and peace. The country that innovates fastest is the one that shows that it is best, not the country that displays the greatest military power. David Ricardo offers the Chinese a model that they have not contemplated sufficiently in their history.
President Clinton, please tell the Chinese leadership that a path of freedom, free trade and intellectual expression, as opposed to government control of "salt and iron" and military power, will prove Chinese excellence. I am certain that Mr. Clinton will have the opportunity to interact with high-level Chinese officials in the coming years. He can make an incalculable contribution to America's future by helping the Chinese to conceptualize the path to ascendancy.