Friday, February 5, 2010

Where Do Markets Bottom?

Five Year Gold Price courtesy

The above is a chart of the gold price over the last five years. The steep falls of the past week are tiny blips. But while one experiences them they are significant. The question is: where does gold bottom? The current decline like the one in fall 2008 is due to concern about financial problems, this time one in Greece and Spain that threatens the Euro; and the possibility of future Fed tightening. It is paradoxical that despite long term ill prospects for the dollar, in the short term it is viewed as a safe haven from risk assets, including gold. In fact, gold is much safer, but the short term psychology of Wall Street Keynesians leads to that thinking.

Gold has further to fall, according to my coin flip test, but not so far as in 2008. Maybe to $950, which came up heads.

1 comment:

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