Tuesday, April 19, 2011

More Price Ramps Ahead: How to Retire with Commodity Indexing

Jim Crum, with whom I have corresponded since the beginnings of the search for information about BO's birth certificate, has published an excellent piece with American Thinker. Jim comments on the inflation effects of the Fed's QE2 program:

The recently released BLS import and export report simply confirms what many of already knew was happening or was going to happen. Prices everywhere on nearly everything of substance are going up dramatically.

Jim adds that fuel and agricultural prices are both on the rise. American Thinker's Thomas Lifson adds to Jim's post:

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

If you are thinking of retiring, you will have to think strategically. Unlike Jim, who told me separately that he's bearish on the stock market, I am convinced that there will be a short term run up. The reason is the liquidity and ultra-negative interest rates that Helicopter Ben and the Fed are generating. One commentator on Kitco suggests that there will be a few week consolidation period followed by an additional run up in the stock market.

No increase is consistent. The silver market has been doing beautifully, and those of us who have partaken of the white metal have enjoyed the run. My portfolio is near its all-time high in February of 2008, when I had benefited from a short term run up in construction stocks that the late Howard S. Katz had recommended. However, I am not sure about silver's short term performance. Over the long term it will continue to rise, along with other commodities.

My recommendation to deal with Obama's declining America is to plan for retirement by purchasing blocks of commodities that reflect your anticipated consumption. For instance, if you are retiring at age 67 and you figure that you'll live until about age 82, you need 15 years' worth of commodities. If you spend $6,000 a year on fuel and gasoline, $7,000 a year on food, $2,000 a year on house repairs, $5,000 a year on property taxes and $5,000 a year on other consumables then you have a commodity budget of about $25,000 a year. The property taxes can be accounted for with gold or silver. The consumables and house repairs can be accounted for the with Deutsche Bank Commodity Index, DBC and/or the Deutsche Bank Agricultural Index, DBA. So you need to fund $25,000 x 15 = $375,000 in commodities investment before you retire. If you have ten years to go, you should fund $37,500 per year, $75,000 over five years, or put it all in now, depending on your theory of where the market is going to be going.

The commodities should not be used as speculation but rather as savings that you will liquidate over your anticipated retirement period. Whether commodities go up or down, your inflation risk for the funded period will be nil.

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