Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Three Generations of AP Reporters are Enough: Matt Crenson and Height

The nineteenth and early twentieth century claim that human beings ought to be bred to become taller, more intelligent, stronger or more attractive was discredited in part by the fallacious statistical reasoning of some of its advocates and in part through its association with Nazism. From the 1920s through the early 1970s, the Lynchburg Training School and Hospital forcibly sterilized 4,000 people who were mentally challenged, some of whom would not be considered so today. The sterilization policy was legally challenged in the case of Buck v. Bell. In this famous decision Oliver Wendell Holmes declared that "three generations of imbeciles are enough".

In the nineteenth century, one of the errors that eugenicists made was the fallacy of regression to the mean. Eugenicists noticed that tall fathers had shorter sons, and concluded that people were becoming shorter. In fact, extreme realizations of a random process are usually followed by less extreme realizations. The same gene pool that produced a great person will usually produce lesser lights in subsequent generations since the exceptional person was an outlier, an exceptional realization of the distribution.

In the case of height, there are a number of reasons for height differentials. While diet and quality of health care might contribute to height, there are also genetic differences across ethnic groups. Thus, it is not a particularly interesting observation that height can correlate with wealth (since diet and health care contribute to height) but that genetic differences probably play a role as well.

In a recent AP column, Matt Crenson draws several conclusions that are as naive as those that 19th century eugenecists drew despite a century-and-a-half of improved statistical knowledge. Crenson observes that America is not the tallest country and that the average height in many European countries is taller. He then goes on to make the statement:

Many economists would argue that it does matter, because height is correlated with numerous measures of a population's well-being.

Crenson falls prey to a basic fallacy of statistical reasoning, taught in any basic statistics course: correlation does not imply causation. It may be true that height is correlated with well-being, but it is absurd to claim that well-being is the cause of height differences between US and European countries. Only an AP reporter would imagine that Americans are suffering from calorie deprivation.

Crenson contradicts himself as follows:

"Like many human traits, an individual's height is determined by a mix of genes and environment. Some experts put the contribution of genes at 40 percent, some at 70 percent, some even higher. But they all agree that aside from African pygmies and a few similar exceptions, most populations have about the same genetic potential for height."

This paragraph illustrates what is wrong with the media today. Does Crenson really believe that if genes contribute 40 to 70 percent of variability in height, then different populations with different gene pools do not have differences in height?

The median 35-45-year-old male white American's height is about 70 inches. The median 35-45-year-old Mexican-American's height is about 67 inches. The differences in height between Europeans and Americans to which Crenson alludes are 1-2 inches.

Crenson notes that there is a 1 1/2 inch difference in average height between US cities and rural areas so that rural Americans are as tall as Europeans. But, due to Crenson's being the third generation of AP reporter, he cannot figure out that there are ethnic differences between American urban areas, where somewhat shorter Mexican-American and Asians are more common, and rural areas where slightly taller whites predominate.

Perhaps Crenson's solution is to sterilize urban Americans?

Monday, July 16, 2007

Joe Repya's "I'm Tired" and the Baby Boom

Norma Segal just forwarded this letter from Lieutenant Colonel Joe Repya.

>"I'm Tired
BY: Joe Repya, Lieutenant Colonel, U. S. Army
101st Airborne Division

Two weeks ago, as I was starting my sixth month of duty in Iraq, I was forced to return to the USA for surgery for an injury I sustained prior to my deployment. With luck, I'll return to Iraq to finish my tour.

I left Baghdad, and a war that has every indication that we are winning, to return to a demoralized country much like the one I returned to in 1971 after my tour in Vietnam. Maybe it's because I'll turn 60 years old in just four months, but I'm tired:

I'm tired of spineless politicians, both Democrat and Republican, who lack the courage, fortitude and character to see these difficult tasks through.

I'm tired of the hypocrisy of politicians who want to rewrite history when the going gets tough.

I'm tired of the disingenuous clamor from those that claim they 'Support the Troops' by wanting them to 'Cut and Run' before victory is achieved.

I'm tired of a mainstream media that can only focus on car bombs and casualty reports because they are too afraid to leave the safety of their hotels to report on the courage and success our brave men and women are having on the battlefield.

I'm tired that so many Americans think you can rebuild a dictatorship into a democracy overnight. I'm tired that so many ignore the bravery of the Iraqi people to go to the voting booth and freely elect a Constitution and soon a permanent
Parliament.

I'm tired of the so called 'Elite Left' that prolongs this war by giving aid and comfort to our enemy, just as they did during the Vietnam War.

I'm tired of antiwar protesters showing up at the funerals of our fallen soldiers, a family whose loved ones gave their life in a just and noble cause, only to be cruelly tormented on the funeral day by cowardly protesters is beyond shameful.

I'm tired that my generation, the Baby Boom --Vietnam generation, who have such a weak backbone that they can't stomach seeing the difficult tasks through to victory.

I'm tired that some are more concerned about the treatment of captives than they are the slaughter and beheading of our citizens and allies.

I'm tired that when we find mass graves it is seldom reported by the press, but mistreat a prisoner and it is front-page news.

Mostly, I'm tired that the people of this great nation didn't learn from history that there is no substitute for victory.

Sincerely,

Joe Repya, Lieutenant Colonel, U. S. Army
101st Airborne Division >"

One of several of Repya's points that deserves further exploration is the one about the baby boomers. The baby boom generation is the one that was too self-indulgent to care about the political milking of the social security system even as they spent carelessly and failed to save for retirement. They are the generation that watched while health care costs spun out of control, and likely will spin even further when they most need care, without lifting a finger to solve the problem. The baby boom is the generation that watched Alan Greenspan debase the US dollar but lacked the cognitive reasoning skills to voice concern. The baby boom is the generation that watched higher education costs spin out of control while educational standards and achievement plummeted. The baby boom is the generation that watched lower educational standards plummet while corporations fled the country. Is it surprising that the baby boom lacks the courage and ability to confront terrorism? Repya is right about the baby boom.

Hamline University Student Suspended

According to the May 9, 2007 City Pages of Minneapolis/St. Paul Troy Scheffler, who holds a gun permit in Minnesota, was placed on interim suspension, and:

"to be conisdered for readmission to Hamline he would have to pay for a psychological evaluation and undergo any treatment deemed necessary."

Because of his suspension, Mr. Scheffler got a low grade in his human resource management class.

According to the article:

"Scheffler has tried to get answers from the university, to no avail. On April 25, he called President Hanson's office to request a meeting, but when he told the secretary his name, she claimed the computer system had crashed and she couldn't access the president's schedule. She promised to call Mr. Scheffler back, but more than a week later, he's still waiting."

Mr. Scheffler is very much a product of a left-wing education, first in his weak writing skills and second in his fixation on identity politics. One can see in this incident the bias in higher education. On the one hand, endless hate-filled ranting about group "rights", with "groups" narrowly and intolerantily defined in terms of "women", "gay", "black", "Jewish", "Hispanic",etc. . On the other, when Mr. Scheffler claims a similar group right as "white" he is thrown out of school. The education system can't stand a mirror. Identity politics is a polite name for bigotry. The American education system, with its focus on identity politics, is the greatest advocate of bigotry in America today.

Upon review of Mr. Scheffler's e-mails below, I am, on the one hand, dismayed that he has progressed to the master's degree level without having mastered some aspects of basic grammar. In describing his course work as a "let down", Mr. Scheffler may sense that he has not progressed with respect to basic skills. On the other hand, although I find some of his views to be distasteful (particularly with respect to race), I do not think that suspension is the right way to handle distasteful e-mails that express intolerant views. A better approach would have been to open debate on the points that Mr. Scheffler raises, inviting others with different views to respond in a public forum.

Where are the writing standards? I teach human resource management every semester and carefully edit the students' writing, much of which is as bad as or worse than Mr. Scheffler's. I encourage troubled writers to attend remedial sessions. I give multiple writing assignments. But I cannot teach college students to write, in part becaue I do not teach writing. I teach business administration.

I empathize with Mr. Scheffler. Many students have pursued expensive and time consuming educational programs but still lack basic skills. Diane Ravitch's book Left Back explains the underlying problem as a lack of focus on the basics; a lack of interest in liberal education; and misapplication of the ideas of progressive education.

The following are the e-mails, copied from the article, that resulted in Mr. Scheffler's suspension:

>"From: Tough Guy Scheffler
To: David Stern
Subject: I dont think the students need the counseling...
Sent: Tuesday, April 17, 2007 10:54 PM

Considering this university also pushes "diversity" initiatives like VA Tech, maybe its "leadership" will reconsider its ban on conceal carry law abiding gun owners... Ironically, according to a few VA Tech forums, there are plenty of students complaining that this wouldnt have happened if the school wouldnt have banned their permits a few months ago...

I just dont understand why leftists dont understand that criminals dont care about laws; that is why they're criminals... Maybe this school will reconsider its repression of law abiding citizens rights.

Considering that accoriding to the university president that there were recently serious "hate crimes" that were committed in the womens bathrooms; there may be people on the edge ready to snap. I cant say I blame them, I myself am tired of having to pay my own extremely overpriced tuition to make up for minorities not paying theirs. On top of that, I am sick of seeing them held to a different standard than the white students (Of course its a lower and more lenient standard).

Oh by the way, when is your "diversity" department going to include European ancestry?

Respectfully,
Troy Scheffler

> "Tough Guy Scheffler" >>> 4/19/2007 10:15 PM >>>

I was wondering why a swastika painted by some frustrated ladies in their bathroom turned somehow into red flags of a hate crime but you dont consider an asian guy admittedly killing people because he hated them not hate motivated...

Anyhow, in response to your most recent email concerning a vigil for people most likely nobody in the school knows; I would like to comment on your claims of upped "security". I attend a MPLS cohort so I dont see any security in the area ever. Infact it seems the dirty bums on the street are the only ones patrolling anything. I would suggest if you are truley concerned about student security, you lift a ridiculous conceal carry campus ban and let the students worry about their own "security". VA Tech just recently passed their conceal carry permit ban; we can all see how well that worked for criminal minds.

Ironically, many students from VA Tech are in online forums which I can direct you to complaining that 32 people wouldnt have died in the students rights were not infringed by banning their legal right to carry their arms on their person. They take the argument that they would have shot the guy before he was able to massacre that many people; I on the other hand would argue that the guy wouldnt have even attempted this atrocity not only if we didnt pay for everybody and their mother to come here for free to soak up tuition funds but also that by knowing law abiding citizens carried weapons to defend themselves that criminals wouldnt be so bold to commit crimes against them...

As usual, Im sure this plea of common sense will fall on deaf ears as I recently responded to a general email notifying students of the conceal carry ban...

On a lighter note... For a "Christian" university, I am very disappointed in Hamline. With the motif of the curriculum, the atheist professors, jewish and other non-Christian staff, I would charge the school with wanton misrepresentation.

Yes, I obviously feel that Hamline has been a serious let down, so far I am almost finished with half of my MAPA degree and havent even cracked a book. All the books that came in plastic wrap are still in plastic wrap despite the ridiculous amounts students are charged. I have yet to hear a student in my cohort that is happy with the curriculum or quality of professors. Why does this school charge so much for such a substandard education?

Furthermore, why are you diversity initiatives anti-Euro American (ie white folks)? All over the university grounds I see loads of leftist propaganda, why not warn a student before they enroll at Hamline? It took me complaining to a few different people before even the hamline website finally included white people in the random pictures on the main page. If I remember corrextly it was like 1 white in a picture out of like 12... Now it is obviously better but just goes to show how biased this university is and the painstaking efforts of diversity pandering it does at the expense of people that are actually planning on contributing back to the TAXPAYERS that are footing the bill for your diversity initiatives. In fact, 3 out of 3 students just in my class that are "minorities" are planning on returning to Africa and all 3 are getting a free education ON MY DOLLAR. I bet the staff here is wondering how a swastika ended up in a bathroom... More people than you can imagine are tired of this all. It's just sad that they resort to petty vandalism rather than speak their mind like I am.

Please stop alienating the students that are working hard every day to pay for their tuition. Maybe you can instruct your staff on sensitivity training towards us "privilaged white folk". If your staff is going to continually berate the evil white male for this privilage and his racist tendencies, at least have them explain where to find the privilages and point out the evil people that are ruining the world. Strange for how horribly racist Europeans and other white people are that everyone seems to want to exploit our generosity. Maybe someday the favor will be returned but I doubt it seeing what I have so far...

Thanks for your time...
Respectfully,
Troy Scheffler"

Note: Declan McCullagh of CNET News.com discusses this blog here.

Goldbug Predicts That Gold Stocks Will Explode

Goldbug Howard S. Katz predicts that gold and gold stocks are about to explode and that interest rates are on the way up:

"Gold acts as a representative commodity, and the past year has seen a pause in gold and gold stocks, which have been resting and gathering strength. The explosion in gold stocks since late June indicates a massive up move over the remainder of the year. This is your chance to stick it to the economic establishment.."

In his July 16 blog, Katz notes that the Fed and Keynesian monetary policy interfere with the free choices of economic actors and that during the past two decades Fed policy has harmed retirees and others who depend on short term interest payments. One cannot, argues Katz, create wealth by expanding the money supply.