Gold and VIX Fall in Response to Trump Tariffs

Gold broke down on Friday, falling to 1279 from about 1300.  Some technicians were calling 1280 critical support. What puzzles me is that it fell on the same day that Trump announced $50 billion in new tariffs and China announced $50 billion in response.  Tariffs are disastrous; trade wars are worse.   I would have thought this news would spike gold, but it had a reverse effect. 

I looked at the VIX, the one-month forward volatility indicator, and it fell by 1.16% in response to the announcement of a trade war.  What? The announcement of a trade war led to less volatility? Sometimes the announcement of news causes a reverse result when insiders have been trading in anticipation of the announcement. Then, they sell on the news.  That may have happened here, but it still seems strange. Another possibility is that Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, made dovish remarks about ECB interest rate policy, causing the euro to fall against the dollar. This has short-term bearish implications for gold, which often goes in the opposite direction to the dollar. Low European interest rates may fuel demand for US stocks.

Whatever the reason, the decline in gold and the VIX both suggest a market sentiment that risk in the dollar and in financial markets are falling despite a trade war with one of the largest holder of dollars.  As I've previously blogged, the massive monetary expansion of the Bush and Obama years may have created a lengthy bear market in commodities. Lower interest rates means more funds are available for exploration, which means lower commodity prices. Eventually, the pendulum swings the other way as falling prices cause miners to go bankrupt.  Then, there is an explosion to the upside, as gold experienced in the 1970s and 2000s.

Still, a bloated stock market, a high dollar, significant Chinese dollar holdings, and the announcement of a trade war don't support a strong dollar, rising stock market scenario.  I'm puzzling over the apparent decline in volatility in response to the trade war news. Is the trade war a ploy or fake news of some sort?  It was announced on the heels of positive news about North Korea, which should have helped improve Sino-US relations.

If the VIX falls much more, it might be sensible to buy it in case of a sharp market fall at some point. I've made the decision to buy gold when it falls, even if that means to $200.

Why Is CNN Telling the Truth?

I was working out today and someone had turned on CNN. I was stunned that CNN was warning of an attack on the dollar and a dollar crash. This has been true for some time (I have been blogging about this for several years) but I was stunned that CNN is openly discussing this. China, Russia, the EU and other countries have denounced the Bush-Obama bailout and the massive stock market subsidy that the Bush-Obama administrations have effected. Moreover, CNN allowed a speaker to say that Obama would be a one-term president.

But why is CNN willing to cover this? CNN reflects establishment, and it is certainly in the establishment's interest to lie about the very shaky ground on which the American monetary and financial system rests.

I am back in the stock and gold markets. I got into the stock market at S&P 760 or so a few days before the 500 point run up about 8 days ago. I got into gold stocks and gold over the past few days.

Howard S. Katz's "conservative" portfolio is now only a few percent below its October 2007 level. I have fared worse on my own. My total accounts are down about 15% since October 2007. Katz is very bullish on gold stocks right now. He is also bullish on the stock market. I am close to 100% invested for the first time since 2005.

In the 1930s Franklin D. Roosevelt created an economic system based on virtually unlimited power on the part of financial interests, especially Wall Street and commercial banks. He did this by ending the gold standard and permitting an unrestricted fractional reserve approach whereby the Fed has unlimited power to expand the money supply. The Republicans jumped on board with this system in 1971 when Richard M. Nixon abolished the international gold standard that had been reintroduced in 1944.

In 2008 George W. Bush and in 2009 Barack H. Obama intensified the approach. Instead of government by banks, they introduced government by Goldman Sachs. The
Secretary of Treasury under President Bush, Henry Paulson, was a former Goldman executive. Barack Obama received heavy contributions from Goldman. The Bush-Obama administration ensured that all of Goldman's debtors would receive considerable bailout money. Goldman Sachs is the nexus around which all the recipients of the bailouts revolve.

I am trying to figure out whether the US government is worth seriously discussing any more. I am also having trouble deciding whether the Republicans and Democrats have a grain of difference between them. American conservatives and American progressives have one allegiance: the corporate charter of Goldman Sachs.