According to Kitco, Jim Cramer has predicted a 15% increase in the price of gold. I last bought a physical ounce of gold in the fall of 2018, when the price dipped to $1,165. It is currently above $1300. I don't know where the price will go. Jim Rogers believes that it will fall back to $900, where it was in 2008. I'm still a buyer at $1300, but not much above. I had bought some gold investments in the 1300s a year or two ago, and some are still in the red, but the inflection point seems to be approaching.
I once ran into Jim Cramer on the New York City subway. There was this dapper guy standing in front of me while I was half napping, and I kept thinking that he looked familiar. I finally roused myself out of my torpor and asked him, "Do you work at Brooklyn College?" He replied in a whisper, "Television Show."
I like his show, but I don't watch TV often. I see Cramer as a voice of Wall Street. Hence, when Kitco quotes Cramer as follows, there is reason to think that a bull market in gold is near:
Don’t listen to the Fed watchers who claim that Powell caved to the stock market or the president...The only thing Powell caved to is reality … This is about the economy — who doesn’t want a healthy economy? If Powell had stuck to his plan for a series of lockstep rate hikes, it would’ve been a lot more devastation to Main Street than to Wall Street.
It pays to read between the lines when listening to Wall Streeters talk about the Fed. If they ever told the truth, there would be a revolution. What Cramer is saying is that short-term economic contingencies are making long-term dollar declines necessary. That means that gold will rise. The $1500 price target is a short-term prediction based on Cramer's intuition or inside information. The ultimate price of gold in our lifetimes is likely to be much higher. That's because of massive indebtedness.
My late friend Howard S. Katz used to talk about a commodity pendulum, whereby monetary expansion causes low-interest-rate borrowing by miners, who overexpand. That crushes commodity prices in the short run. In the long run the miners go bankrupt because of the competition from the overexpansion, and the declining supply leads to sharp price increases.
My guess is that there will be a short-term bubble, perhaps to $1500 as Cramer says, then a downturn, perhaps as far back as the 1100s, but not necessarily. This will punish short-term buyers, making it easier for insiders to buy at a cheaper price. Eventually, we will be seeing much higher prices in gold. It is debatable whether an ultimate dollar collapse will lead to a new gold standard. If it does, we could see $10,000 gold, so my 2010 prediction of $3,500 may have been too low.
Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Five Louts Extend Invitation to Destructive Oaf
Mike Marnell, crusading publisher of the Lincoln Eagle of Kingston, NY, just sent me this press release. Congressman Maurice Hinchey has a long history of camouflaging extremist environmentalism in moderate rhetoric. For instance, he proposed to turn the Adirondacks into a socialist dictatorship run by Soviet-like planning boards, and was able to convince the Adirondack Enterprise that this was a "moderate" proposal. Likewise, he was able to convince stock trading maniac Jim Cramer that he really does intend to permit drilling of the Marcellus oil field.
***NEWS RELEASE***
July 2, 2010 | Contact: Mike Morosi 202-225-6335 (Hinchey) |
Reps. Hinchey, Murphy, Tonko, Lowey and Hall Invite
U.S. Interior Secretary Salazar to Visit Hudson Valley
Washington, D.C. -- Five members of Congress for New York's Hudson Valley have invited U.S. Department of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to visit the region as part of his America's Great Outdoors initiative. U.S. Representatives Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), Scott Murphy, Paul Tonko, Nita Lowey and John Hall asked that the secretary make the trip in order to learn about innovative strategies being used to conserve lands and waters for public benefit in the Hudson Valley.
Salazar recently announced that he is touring several regions of interests in order to develop the America's Great Outdoors program, which aims to reconnect Americans to the outdoors. The full text of the letter inviting the secretary to the Hudson Valley is below. More details about the America's Great Outdoors program can be found at: http://www.doi.gov/
July 1, 2010
The Honorable Ken Salazar
Secretary
U.S. Department of the Interior
1849 C Street, N.W.
Washington DC 20240
1849 C Street, N.W.
Washington DC 20240
Dear Mr. Secretary,
As you continue to plan and develop America’s Great Outdoors program, we hope you will consider visiting the Hudson Valley region to conduct a listening session and learn about innovative strategies at work to conserve our lands and waters for public benefit now and for future generations.
The Hudson River Valley is one of the most significant river corridors in the country. The historical, natural, cultural, commercial, scenic, and recreational resources spread throughout the region are unparalleled. Our region is home to a wealth of history and beautiful landscapes that inspired a school of art and fostered innovation that drove our nation's early economy. Today, the region is a model for the green job movement, with an emerging solar energy industry and a $4.7 billion tourism economy that is closely linked with conservation and outdoor recreation industries.
Currently, the Hudson River Valley is designated as a National Heritage Area, National Estuarine Research Reserve and a New York State Greenway. In addition, the House of Representatives recently passed legislation authorizing a National Park Service special resource study of the Hudson River Valley.
We applaud your effort to promote and support innovative community-level efforts to conserve outdoor spaces and to reconnect Americans to the outdoors. Stakeholders from across our region have been involved in exactly these types of efforts for many years. Whether it is connecting residents of the New York City metropolitan area to one of our country's greatest landscapes or working on a regional-level through the Greenway to conserve our historic, cultural and natural resources in the face of persistent population growth, the Hudson River Valley has been at the forefront of promoting innovative and cooperative solutions to our challenges.
We are confident that you will find many projects and partnerships that exemplify the America’s Great Outdoors agenda in the Hudson Valley and we hope that you will be able to include our region in your upcoming tour of the country.
Sincerely,
Maurice D. Hinchey
Scott Murphy
Paul Tonko
Nita Lowey
John J. Hall
##
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Thirty-six Years Late and Ten Trillion Dollars Short
Goldbug Howard S. Katz blogs that media coverage of the Fed is rife with fraud. There is no difference, notes Katz, between the Fed's reducing interest rates and increasing the money supply, although the Fed wants to claim otherwise:
"You will usually hear that the Federal Reserve is adjusting the Federal funds (not the T-bill) rate. This is another piece of misinformation designed to keep the public’s eye off the ball. The Federal Reserve does not operate in the Federal funds market...."
Katz notes that in order to purchase T-bills, the Fed must increase the money supply, and it does so through printing more monopoly money, i.e., dollars:
"When the Federal Reserve first received this power, the total money supply of the U.S. was twenty billion dollars. This week it was 1363 billion dollars."
Between 1946 and August 1971 countries operated under the Bretton Woods system under which most countries settled their international balances in U.S. dollars but some redeemed dollars for gold. Because of pre-1971 inflation, balance-of-payments deficits reduced gold reserves. Thus, President Nixon announced that the United States would no longer offer gold. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one dollar in 1971 has the same buying power as $5.13 in 2007. In other words, since the ending of the final link to the gold standard 36 years ago, the dollar has declined to 1/5.13 or 19.49% of its value.
Mainstream economists have developed elaborate rationales for this decline, such as "assuming that all wages are indexed, all savings accounts are indexed, the stock market goes up at a constant rate, and loan payments are indexed, then inflation does not matter". If you believe them you lose money.
After 36 years of post-Bretton Woods inflation, The New York Sun notes that the current real estate bubble has burst. Prices have fallen by the most since 1970 and purchases have fallen by 8.3%, the most in seven years. Construction is in its worst slump since 1991. It is true that there is a bright side to the decline of the dollar, namely, we have become to Europe what Europe was to us in the 1960s: a tourist destination. As the Sun also reports, "New York City's travel, real estate, and manufacturing sectors — which profit from the sale of services to foreigners — will likely benefit." Of course, those who need to purchase real estate in the New York area will pay through the nose, as their monopoly dollars need to be brought in wheel barrows and cannot compete with Euros, Yen or Yuan. But who cares, since those of us who are selling now can retire?
To its credit, the Sun ran another front page article about the dollar's decline , "The Dollar's Fall Starts to Worry". The Sun notes that "foreign investors proclaim that a "for sale" sign has been hung on the city". The Sun quotes Axel Merk:
"No country in the world has ever fought itself to prosperity by weakening its currency"
The Sun also quotes chief of the Fed's counterfeiting operations, Ben Bernanke, as saying that there is a "liquidity crisis". With my TIAA CREF money market fund yielding 3.68%, what kind of liquidity crisis is Bernanke describing? Is he insane? I'm having trouble figuring out whether Ben Bernanke is on hallucinogenic drugs; is a crook; or hopes for a high-paying job from schnorrers* like Jim Cramer.
The Sun also notes that Russia, China and the Middle East countries are starting to exchange dollars for the euro. Given the multi-trillion (not billion) extent of foreign holdings, there is a massive potential for further reductions in the dollar.
Given that the Sun is reporting the dollar decline thirty-six years after the end of the gold standard, and after the Fed has circulated ten trillion dollars in monopoly money around the world, it looks like the Sun's front-page article may be thirty-six years late and ten trillion dollars short. Buy gold and commodities, friends.
*To revise Groucho Marx's song "Hooray for Captain Spaulding"in Animal Crackers (the tune was also the theme to Groucho's 1960s TV Show, You Bet Your Life):
My name is Jimmy Cramer
The Economy's Explorer
Did someone call me a schnorrer?
Hooray, hooray, hooray
"You will usually hear that the Federal Reserve is adjusting the Federal funds (not the T-bill) rate. This is another piece of misinformation designed to keep the public’s eye off the ball. The Federal Reserve does not operate in the Federal funds market...."
Katz notes that in order to purchase T-bills, the Fed must increase the money supply, and it does so through printing more monopoly money, i.e., dollars:
"When the Federal Reserve first received this power, the total money supply of the U.S. was twenty billion dollars. This week it was 1363 billion dollars."
Between 1946 and August 1971 countries operated under the Bretton Woods system under which most countries settled their international balances in U.S. dollars but some redeemed dollars for gold. Because of pre-1971 inflation, balance-of-payments deficits reduced gold reserves. Thus, President Nixon announced that the United States would no longer offer gold. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one dollar in 1971 has the same buying power as $5.13 in 2007. In other words, since the ending of the final link to the gold standard 36 years ago, the dollar has declined to 1/5.13 or 19.49% of its value.
Mainstream economists have developed elaborate rationales for this decline, such as "assuming that all wages are indexed, all savings accounts are indexed, the stock market goes up at a constant rate, and loan payments are indexed, then inflation does not matter". If you believe them you lose money.
After 36 years of post-Bretton Woods inflation, The New York Sun notes that the current real estate bubble has burst. Prices have fallen by the most since 1970 and purchases have fallen by 8.3%, the most in seven years. Construction is in its worst slump since 1991. It is true that there is a bright side to the decline of the dollar, namely, we have become to Europe what Europe was to us in the 1960s: a tourist destination. As the Sun also reports, "New York City's travel, real estate, and manufacturing sectors — which profit from the sale of services to foreigners — will likely benefit." Of course, those who need to purchase real estate in the New York area will pay through the nose, as their monopoly dollars need to be brought in wheel barrows and cannot compete with Euros, Yen or Yuan. But who cares, since those of us who are selling now can retire?
To its credit, the Sun ran another front page article about the dollar's decline , "The Dollar's Fall Starts to Worry". The Sun notes that "foreign investors proclaim that a "for sale" sign has been hung on the city". The Sun quotes Axel Merk:
"No country in the world has ever fought itself to prosperity by weakening its currency"
The Sun also quotes chief of the Fed's counterfeiting operations, Ben Bernanke, as saying that there is a "liquidity crisis". With my TIAA CREF money market fund yielding 3.68%, what kind of liquidity crisis is Bernanke describing? Is he insane? I'm having trouble figuring out whether Ben Bernanke is on hallucinogenic drugs; is a crook; or hopes for a high-paying job from schnorrers* like Jim Cramer.
The Sun also notes that Russia, China and the Middle East countries are starting to exchange dollars for the euro. Given the multi-trillion (not billion) extent of foreign holdings, there is a massive potential for further reductions in the dollar.
Given that the Sun is reporting the dollar decline thirty-six years after the end of the gold standard, and after the Fed has circulated ten trillion dollars in monopoly money around the world, it looks like the Sun's front-page article may be thirty-six years late and ten trillion dollars short. Buy gold and commodities, friends.
*To revise Groucho Marx's song "Hooray for Captain Spaulding"in Animal Crackers (the tune was also the theme to Groucho's 1960s TV Show, You Bet Your Life):
My name is Jimmy Cramer
The Economy's Explorer
Did someone call me a schnorrer?
Hooray, hooray, hooray
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