Dick Morris was on Hannity and Colmes tonight to discuss oil speculators' influence on oil prices. Last night, O'Reilly claimed that high oil prices are due to "greedy speculators" This is spin. If speculators are causing high oil prices, then the mechanism needs to be clarified.
For a subject this important, Hannity and Colmes and O'Reilly should have economists from the CATO institute and perhaps the Brookings Institution debate regulation of commodities speculation. Part of the discussion would explain what makes this situation different from the rest of the 300-year history of commodity speculation. Who are these shadowy speculators? What is the mechanism by which they supposedly drive up prices? Why doesn't real demand by consumers drive down the speculators' inflation of oil prices? Unlike the coverage on Fox heretofore, the debate would need to be specific, clear and avoid double talk.
Dick Morris is a nice fellow but he lacks understanding of economics or of futures markets. I don't doubt that markets can become inflated as we saw with the tech bubble and housing, but such asset holders risk a crash. There is every reason to think that this would happen and, if so, there would be no need for regulation.
Regulation is the wrong idea, but there is nothing wrong with debating it. In particular, such a debate would clarify why speculation has or has not caused the price increase in oil and why the market will not correct on its own. Morris did not explain this. He could barely say the word "futures contract" and I doubt if he could define the term. There has been futures trading since tulip bulbs went through a price bubble in 17th century Holland and then crashed.
Futures holders must sell their oil when the future contract expires. If consumer demand has been reduced because of high prices, when the contracts expire the oil price will decline.
If this basic pattern is to be violated, O'Reilly, Hannity and Colmes owe it to their viewers to explain the reason clearly instead of putting spin on it like saying "greedy speculators" or having an economic illiterate like Morris say that "paper trading" is causing price increases.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Obama v. Hyperion
In ancient Greece the Sun god was known as Helios or Hyperion and later associated with light and so called Apollo. The Anchoress (hat tip Larwyn)provides evidence that Hyperion is a Republican for, alas, he does not believe in global warming. According to Anchoress:
"Some scientists think the “warming trend” which (despite the fact that we’re having our usual early-June heatwaves) has stalled out over the past few years was helped along by sunspots. And lately, there aren’t any...It continues to be dead,” said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission...Today’s sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren’t sure why...In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century."
The Anchoress wonders: "It’s not like we can do anything about it. Either old Sol will spot and flare or he won’t."
But the Democrats know what to do. Sue. Send the Trial Lawyers Association to civilly enforce global warming. I can see it now, Obama v. Hyperion, with Ron Kuby representing Obama.
"Some scientists think the “warming trend” which (despite the fact that we’re having our usual early-June heatwaves) has stalled out over the past few years was helped along by sunspots. And lately, there aren’t any...It continues to be dead,” said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission...Today’s sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren’t sure why...In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century."
The Anchoress wonders: "It’s not like we can do anything about it. Either old Sol will spot and flare or he won’t."
But the Democrats know what to do. Sue. Send the Trial Lawyers Association to civilly enforce global warming. I can see it now, Obama v. Hyperion, with Ron Kuby representing Obama.
Obama and Newsweek
Mark Hemingway has written an excellent article on NRO Online. Hemingway notes:
"Obama didn’t vote on an amendment sponsored by Lieberman and Arizona Republican Jon Kyl last fall that would have classified the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization for training and funding Hezbollah and otherwise contributing to the killing of Israelis...that didn’t stop him from pillorying Hillary for voting for it, and thereby contributing to the Bush administration’s “saber-rattling” with Iran...Anti-Israel sentiments are all around Obama (Zbigniew Brzezinski, Anthony Lake, Susan Rice, Robert Malley, Joseph Cirincione …). Nevermind that his pastor of 20 years has an affection for Louis “Judaism-is-a-gutter-religion” Farrakhan…"
but
"two big Obama supporters blame Clinton — without citing any evidence other than hearsay — for disinformation among Jewish voters. And that meets Newsweek’s publication standards?"
Let's face it: Newsweek is to news as Star Trek is to news, and Obama is to McCain as Newsweek is to news.
"Obama didn’t vote on an amendment sponsored by Lieberman and Arizona Republican Jon Kyl last fall that would have classified the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization for training and funding Hezbollah and otherwise contributing to the killing of Israelis...that didn’t stop him from pillorying Hillary for voting for it, and thereby contributing to the Bush administration’s “saber-rattling” with Iran...Anti-Israel sentiments are all around Obama (Zbigniew Brzezinski, Anthony Lake, Susan Rice, Robert Malley, Joseph Cirincione …). Nevermind that his pastor of 20 years has an affection for Louis “Judaism-is-a-gutter-religion” Farrakhan…"
but
"two big Obama supporters blame Clinton — without citing any evidence other than hearsay — for disinformation among Jewish voters. And that meets Newsweek’s publication standards?"
Let's face it: Newsweek is to news as Star Trek is to news, and Obama is to McCain as Newsweek is to news.
America Winning the War in Iraq
Hugh Hewitt blogs a NY Post article by Arthur Herman (hat tip Larwyn) that states:
>"AMERICA has won, or is about to win, the Iraq war.
"The latest proof came last month, as the Iraqi army - just a few months ago the target of scorn and abuse from Democratic politicians and journalists - forcefully reoccupied three cities that had served as key insurgency bases (Basra, Sadr City and Mosul).
"Sunnis and Shias alike applauded as their nation's army compelled insurgent militias to lay down their arms. The country's leading opposition newspaper, Azzaman, led the applause for the move into Mosul - a sign that national reconciliation in Iraq is under way and probably irreversible..."
Hewitt points out that Obama has been receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in financial support despite his eagerness to prove Herman wrong and to prove that America has lost. Obama does not express a pro-America game plan, but rather views defeat in Iraq as a way to prove America is a "nice" country so that terrorists will understand how nice the US is and stop being terrorists. Obama's and the left's position is foolish. General Petraeus has demonstrated that a fourth generation warfare strategy will work. The war will wind down soon without the left's and Obama's anti-American posturing.
>"AMERICA has won, or is about to win, the Iraq war.
"The latest proof came last month, as the Iraqi army - just a few months ago the target of scorn and abuse from Democratic politicians and journalists - forcefully reoccupied three cities that had served as key insurgency bases (Basra, Sadr City and Mosul).
"Sunnis and Shias alike applauded as their nation's army compelled insurgent militias to lay down their arms. The country's leading opposition newspaper, Azzaman, led the applause for the move into Mosul - a sign that national reconciliation in Iraq is under way and probably irreversible..."
Hewitt points out that Obama has been receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in financial support despite his eagerness to prove Herman wrong and to prove that America has lost. Obama does not express a pro-America game plan, but rather views defeat in Iraq as a way to prove America is a "nice" country so that terrorists will understand how nice the US is and stop being terrorists. Obama's and the left's position is foolish. General Petraeus has demonstrated that a fourth generation warfare strategy will work. The war will wind down soon without the left's and Obama's anti-American posturing.
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